Monte Carlo (300,000 sims) over all remaining regular-season fixtures (Round 2 upcoming), weighted by historical URC matches at similar (league position, current scoreline, match minute). Recomputes whenever a live score changes.
0 live · 0 full-time · 8 upcoming · Updated 8:32:36 AM
| Team | Pts | Diff | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glasgow Warriors | 5 | +6 | 50.1 | 23.2 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.77 | 0.31 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.01 | · | · | |||
| DHL Stormers | 5 | +14 | 16.9 | 21.9 | 19.4 | 15.5 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.95 | 0.45 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.01 | · | · | |
| Leinster Rugby | 2 | -1 | 14.8 | 19.9 | 19.0 | 15.7 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.74 | 0.35 | 0.14 | 0.04 | · | · | |
| Vodacom Bulls | 5 | +34 | 9.6 | 15.3 | 17.5 | 17.3 | 14.8 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.99 | 0.44 | 0.15 | 0.04 | · | · | |
| Cardiff Rugby | 4 | +6 | 5.3 | 10.4 | 14.2 | 16.7 | 17.0 | 13.9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.94 | 0.41 | 0.13 | 0.03 | · | |
| Munster Rugby | 1 | -6 | 1.6 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 14.7 | 17.0 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.03 | · |
| 10bet Lions | 4 | +1 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 15.6 | 16.3 | 12.7 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.89 | 0.29 | 0.07 | · |
| Connacht Rugby | 0 | -14 | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.90 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 13.6 | 14.9 | 14.6 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.21 |
| Hollywoodbets Sharks | 5 | +17 | 0.11 | 0.41 | 0.97 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 13.2 | 14.8 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.24 |
| Edinburgh Rugby | 5 | +5 | 0.08 | 0.31 | 0.76 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 14.1 | 14.8 | 14.1 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.46 |
| Ulster Rugby | 2 | -5 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.38 | 0.92 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 13.7 | 15.6 | 16.0 | 14.1 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.38 |
| Ospreys | 1 | -17 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.73 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 14.4 | 15.8 | 15.7 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 0.94 |
| Benetton Rugby | 2 | +0 | · | · | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.86 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 9.1 | 14.2 | 21.8 | 20.9 | 14.4 | 6.8 |
| Scarlets | 1 | -6 | · | · | · | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.64 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 9.3 | 16.7 | 23.1 | 25.4 | 15.1 | |
| Dragons RFC | 2 | +0 | · | · | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.51 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 7.9 | 15.1 | 23.3 | 28.0 | 17.5 | ||
| Zebre Parma | 0 | -34 | · | · | · | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 0.75 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 10.7 | 23.0 | 58.3 |